March 21. On this date in 1844, William Miller, a Baptist preacher, predicted that on March 21, 1844, Christ would return to the Earth. When this did not come to pass, he recalculated the date to October 22, 1844.

 

March 21. On this date in 1844, William Miller, a Baptist preacher, predicted that on March 21, 1844, Christ would return to the Earth. When this did not come to pass, he recalculated the date to October 22, 1844.

William Miller, a Baptist preacher, predicted that on March 21, 1844, Christ would return to the Earth. When this did not come to pass, he recalculated the date to October 22, 1844. Although the prophecy was not fulfilled, leading to what was called the Great Disappointment, the Millerites would go on to form the various Adventist churches. 

Thief in the Night argues that Miller's interpretation of biblical prophecies for the signs and dates of the coming of Jesus were correct and fulfilled by the Báb who declared that he was the "Promised One" on May 23, 1844, and began openly teaching in Iran in October 1844. 

Written by Hand of the Cause of God William Sears, a popular radio and television personality, Thief in the Night has been reprinted over twenty times by George Ronald Publisher, an official publishing house of the Bahá'ís Administrative Order. The Bahá'í movie "The Miller Prediction" rests on these events.

What is interesting about these events in general is the manner in which individuals react. In the classic work of social psychology, When Prophecy Fails, Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter studied a small UFO religion in Chicago called the Seekers that believed in an imminent apocalypse. They describe the coping mechanisms after the event did not occur, and their findings have been generally applicable to a wide variety of scenarios involving cognitive dissonance and true-believer syndrome.

Festinger describes the basic hypotheses of cognitive dissonance as follows (page 3):

1. The existence of dissonance [or inconsistency], being psychologically uncomfortable, will motivate the person to try to reduce the dissonance and achieve consonance [or consistency].

2. When dissonance is present, in addition to trying to reduce it, the person will actively avoid situations and information which would likely increase the dissonance.

Festinger and his co-authors conclude that the following conditions lead to increased conviction in beliefs following disconfirmation (page 4):

1. The belief must be held with deep conviction and be relevant to the believer's actions or behavior.

2. The belief must have produced actions that are difficult to undo.

3. The belief must be sufficiently specific and concerned with the real world such that it can be clearly disconfirmed.

4. The disconfirmatory evidence must be recognized by the believer.

5. The believer must have social support from other believers.

Festinger describes the increased conviction and proselytizing by cult members after disconfirmation as a specific instantiation of cognitive dissonance (i.e., increased proselyting reduced dissonance by producing the knowledge that others also accepted their beliefs) and its application to understanding complex mass phenomena. (pages 252-259)

When Prophecy Fails was published in 1957, the year that Shoghi Effendi died without having written a will as prescribed in Bahá'u'lláh's Kitáb-i-Aqdas and without having designated a successor Guardian as stipulated in `Abdu'l-Bahá's Will and Testament.

From the Kitáb-i-Aqdas, paragraph 109 "Unto everyone hath been enjoined the writing of a will. The testator should head this document with the adornment of the Most Great Name, bear witness therein unto the oneness of God in the Dayspring of His Revelation, and make mention, as he may wish, of that which is praiseworthy, so that it may be a testimony for him in the kingdoms of Revelation and Creation and a treasure with his Lord, the Supreme Protector, the Faithful."

From The Will And Testament of ‘Abdu’l-Bahá, Part One, page 12 "O ye beloved of the Lord! It is incumbent upon the Guardian of the Cause of God to appoint in his own life-time him that shall become his successor, that differences may not arise after his passing. He that is appointed must manifest in himself detachment from all worldly things, must be the essence of purity, must show in himself the fear of God, knowledge, wisdom and learning. Thus, should the first-born of the Guardian of the Cause of God not manifest in himself the truth of the words:—“The child is the secret essence of its sire,” that is, should he not inherit of the spiritual within him (the Guardian of the Cause of God) and his glorious lineage not be matched with a goodly character, then must he, (the Guardian of the Cause of God) choose another branch to succeed him."